Gold broke out of its price consolidation pattern last week. However, instead of continuing the previous uptrend, it closed down for the week at $1,866.30 per ounce, testing the previous low of the formation set back in August (see the following chart).
This decline in gold prices coincided with an upward bounce in the U.S. Dollar Index last week, which closed at 94.68. Despite this move up, the U.S. dollar remains well below its 200-day moving average (which was at 97.21 on the weekly chart).
Back in June, when the U.S. Dollar Index was at 96, economist Steven Roach, former chair of Morgan Stanley Asia, predicted that the Index would plunge 35% in the next year or two. He now sees this “crash” in the U.S. dollar as a real possibility by the end of 2021.
Roach told CNBC on Wednesday (9/23), “We’ve got data that’s confirmed both the saving and current account dynamic in a much more dramatic fashion than even I was looking for. … Lacking in saving and wanting to grow, we run these current account deficits to borrow surplus saving, and that always pushes the currencies lower. … The dollar is not immune to that time honored adjustment.”
Rick Andrews is president of Avant Capital Management.