Gold closed last week at $1,947.90 per ounce. The consolidation of the price of gold has now completed a “pennant” formation (shown on the following daily chart). This pennant pattern usually precedes a breakout in the direction of the previous trend—which, in this case, would mean a breakout to the upside.
One of the major factors providing support for the current bull market in gold is the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Although the U.S. Dollar Index is now at its lowest level for the year, many analysts are projecting that it will decline even more.
Reuters reports, “The U.S. currency is near its lowest level in 27 months and is down about 11% from its 2020 peak against a basket of its peers, with Goldman Sachs, UBS and Societe Generale among the banks forecasting more losses. …
“Goldman Sachs, for instance, believes a steadily improving global economy and negative real rates in the United States are a ‘sustained recipe for dollar weakness.’ … Analysts at TD Securities said the Federal Reserve’s revamped policy approach to inflation will keep the dollar under pressure, as it suggests interest rates will stay lower for longer. The greenback is about 10% overvalued against other major currencies, they said.”
Rick Andrews is president of Avant Capital Management.