Correlation does not imply causation

Correlation does not imply causation

A quantitative money-management firm is all about indicators—indicators for the stock, bond, and gold markets, usually. These indicators are tactical in nature—that is, they tell you when to be invested in the asset and when not to be. For some reason, February has...
Random Thoughts of Snow on Wall Street

Random Thoughts of Snow on Wall Street

Last weekend, I visited New York City to have a partial knee replacement on my left leg to match last May’s version on the right. I sat for over an hour as the plane was prepared and de-iced in the middle of what seemed to be unending snowfall. As I watched the...
Is it over yet?

Is it over yet?

We’ve now had a 19% decline. That’s from one daily closing price to another daily closing price—9/20/2018 to 12/24/2018. On an intraday high to intraday low, it was a 20.2% decline. Is it over yet? That’s more than a 20% decline. That’s what we learned was the...
Market Update 1/2/19

Market Update 1/2/19

Last week, the markets recovered some of the previous week’s losses. The NASDAQ gained nearly 4%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indexes each tacked on nearly 3%. Bond yields tumbled as investors continued their flight to safety, despite the Federal Reserve’s...